Glossary
This glossary defines the vocabulary Phoeniks uses when it publishes a yield figure: what an evidence level is, how the yield deviation index is computed, what a proof chain contains, and how process-based crop models differ from statistical yield forecasts.
Evidence level#
A four-step label attached to every figure Phoeniks publishes — measured, modelled, inferred or untested — stating how the number was obtained rather than how confident the model feels.
Yield deviation index#
The ratio between the modelled yield of a parcel for the current season and its own multi-year reference, expressed as a percentage. It isolates seasonal behaviour from structural land quality.
Proof chain#
The ordered record linking a published result to its model version, input snapshot, parameter set and run timestamp, so a third party can reproduce the figure without contacting Phoeniks.
Reanalysis#
A gridded weather dataset produced by assimilating historical observations into a numerical model, giving a physically consistent record where no station exists. Phoeniks uses agrometeorological reanalysis as crop-model input.
Model ensemble#
Running several independent process-based crop models on the same inputs and reporting their spread. Disagreement between models is published as a signal, not averaged away.
Process-based crop model#
A simulation that reproduces plant physiology day by day — water balance, phenology, biomass accumulation — instead of fitting a statistical curve to past yields. APSIM, DSSAT and ORYZA are examples.
Parcel#
The smallest agricultural unit Phoeniks models: a contiguous field boundary taken from a public land registry or delineated from imagery, carrying one crop for one season.
Holdout validation#
Testing a model against observed yields that were deliberately withheld from calibration. It is the only way to state an error figure that a model-risk function can accept.
Spatial covariance#
The degree to which yield shortfalls on different parcels occur together. It drives portfolio tail risk: two hundred uncorrelated fields behave nothing like two hundred fields in one weather system.
Deforestation-free#
Under the EU Deforestation Regulation, a commodity produced on land that was not deforested after 31 December 2020, evidenced by geolocation of the plot of production.
Financed emissions#
The share of a borrower's or investee's greenhouse-gas emissions attributed to a lender or investor in proportion to its exposure, following the PCAF methodology.
Audit trail#
An append-only log of every computation and data change behind a delivered figure, retained so a supervisor or auditor can reconstruct what was known at the moment a decision was taken.
See also
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